Wednesday, January 16, 2008

A Kind of Interesting Stat From Michigan

Happy Birthday Troglotyke #5!

A little post-primary handicapping to add to the white noise...

There's plenty of chatter on the exit polling from Michigan and whether Romney's convincing win last night will play in other states. There was one tidbit that caught my eye.

Among "Born Again" or Evangelical Christians:

Romney - 34%
Huckabee - 29%
McCain - 23%

If not a chink in Huckabee's armor, then this should at least put an end to the idea of monolithic evangelicals across the country. Peter Wehner described the latest "transformation" of Evangelicals last month in National Review, the gist of it being that a renewed focus on the mission of Christ may be swinging them away from a quasi-formal political alliance with the Republican party, something I have personally noted is not limited to evangelicals.

Regarding Mr. Huckabee specifically, the transference of evangelical Protestants to him that occurred in Iowa, and that has become boilerplate analysis since then, continues to be challenged by not only Romney's win yesterday, but by reservations expressed recently by American Values president and former presidential candidate, Gary Bauer, although his reservations are policy-related and not theological (HHT: NRO). Nonetheless, I would not be surprised to see South Carolina, where it is a four-man race today, confirm this lack of an evangelical bloc.

[submitted by e-mail]

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